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Veteran political reporters offer thoughts on GOP Convention

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Just days after the Democratic National Convention wrapped up in Denver, the Republican National Convention is getting underway in Saint Paul, Minnesota. A couple of veteran political reporters – Jo Mannies with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Steve Kraske with the Kansas City Star – expects to see as much talk about Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama as they do about GOP candidate John McCain.

Mannies says there have been a lot of negative comments from Republicans regarding the Obama candidacy, and she expects the negativity to continue. Kraske has no doubt that is going to happen because, in his view, the negative campaigning is working in places like Missouri and elsewhere in the country.

As for the need to reach out to certain voters, Mannies thinks McCain will tailor his message to suburban voters, saying most rural residents are likely to vote Republican while most urban voters can be expected to support Democrats. It is the suburban voters, she says, who hold the key to the election in November. Kraske goes along with that, adding he believes conservative voters – while they might have doubts about McCain – will support the Arizona Senator on election Day.

Download/Listen: Steve Walsh report (60 MP3)
Download/Listen: Campaign Watch – Steve Walsh interviews Jo Mannies and Steve Kraske (8:00 MP3)

Missouri Democrats gather with party in Denver

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Missouri Democrats have gathered in Denver for the Democratic National Convention , anxious to see their presidential candidate shore up support within the party so he can take on Republicans this fall.

Kansas City Star political reporter Steve Kraske flatly states what faces Barack Obama this week, "He needs a bump out of this convention and he needs it in a very bad way."

The luster of the Obama presidential campaign has dulled a bit and fallout from Hillary Clinton supporters lingers.

That’s not a good combination says St. Louis Post-Dispatch political reporter Jo Mannies, "I think it’s the kind of drama he really doesn’t need."

Both Mannies and Kraske question the value of conventions these days. Kraske says some voters first tune in to the race during the conventions. Mannies calls them week-long infomercials. Kraske says they produce little news, though they might provide some voters with their first real view of the candidates.

Missouri Democrats reflect how close the Obama-Clinton race was. Obama barely won the state and the delegates split 36-36 between Obama and Clinton. Nearly all the super delegates have gone to Obama.

You can listen to the entire interview with Kraske and Mannies on this week’s Campaign Watch.

Download/listen Brent Martin reports (:60 MP3)

Political reporters discuss the shape of the face for governor

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Many plots and sub-plots have arisen out of the primary election as a heated general election season gets underway. Two top political reporters say they are intrigued by how the race for governor will shake out.

Republicans have settled on Congressman Kenny Hulshof as their nominee to face Democrat Jay Nixon for the seat Matt Blunt is giving up. The campaign between Hulshof and Treasurer Sarah Steelman was close. Hulshof won by slightly more than four percent of the vote.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch political reporter Jo Mannies says she’s waiting to see what happens in the aftermath of a tough primary race, whether Sarah Steelman moves to heal the party rift and endorse Hulshof.

Both Mannies and Kansas City Star political reporter Steve Kraske believe Steelman exposed some weakness in the Hulshof campaign that will be used against him in the general election. Kraske says Steelman turned Hulshof’s experience in Congress, first elected in 1996, against him, a tactic Nixon has already picked up on.

Kraske and Mannies will provide insight into Missouri politics throughout this political season on the Missourinet’s special report; Campaign Watch. You can hear the entire program by clicking on the link on the front of this Web site. 

Download/listen Brent Martin reports (:60 MP3)

Missouri voters made statements Tuesday, some by not showing up

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Missouri voters made a statement on Tuesday, both those who cast ballots as well as those who didn’t show, according to two long-time political observers.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch political reporter Jo Mannies says that what stood out to her about Tuesday’s primary election was the low turn-out. Election officials had hoped for a turnout between 30 and 35%, but only about 19% of the state’s registered voters bothered to go to the polls. Mannies says turnout was especially low among Democrats, in particular in the First Congressional District of St. Louis, in which less than 15% of the registered voters cast ballots. Mannies says that’s important, because the First District is largely African-American and it appears resident voters aren’t energized without Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama being on the ballot. She says that might make a difference come November.

Kansas City Star political reporter Steve Kraske focuses on the small margin of victory in the Republican gubernatorial primary in which Kenny Hulshof edged Sarah Steelman. Hulshof squeezed out a victory, winning 49.2% of the vote to Steelman’s 44.7%. Kraske says Hulshof needed to emerge from the primary with a double-digit victory to create the momentum he needs to defeat Democrat Jay Nixon in November. Kraske says Hulshof had clear advantages going into Tuesday’s primary with the Republican apparatus clearly behind him, including the endorsement of US Senator Christopher Bond. The strong showing of Steelman doesn’t bode well for Hulshof in the general election.

Both Kraske and Mannies will be commenting on Missouri politics through the November elections on the Missourinet’s special program; Campaign Watch, which begins Monday. A broadcast version of the program will be aired on many Missourinet affiliates. A longer version will be posted on this Web site. 

Download/listen Brent Martin reports (:60 MP3)

Election Should Determine Whether State Governor Remains Divided

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It appears Missourians are divided over who should be their next Governor. But, if they choose Republican Matt Blunt, it’s likely their state government won’t be divided. Political analysts predict Republicans will retain control of the State Legislature, both the Senate and House. The Governor’s race between Blunt and Democrat Claire McCaskill remains a toss-up. Kansas City Star political reporter Steve Kraske says this election reminds him of 1992, when Democrats consolidated state government with the election of Mel Carnahan as Governor and pushed through some weighty legislation. Kraske says recent public opinion polls indicate Missouri is leaning toward Republicans, but he doesn’t count out Democrat Claire McCaskill. He says she has been running a strong campaign and the Governor’s race is too close to call.

How important is this year’s Primary Election?

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Jo Mannies thinks it’s one of the most important in a long time. All statewide offices are up…two congressional seats…potentially a new US Senator…and a couple of big issues. Steve Kraske believes this primary is more important for the Democrats and than the Republicans, who –traditionally– do a better job of limiting the number of candidates on the primary ballot. Two social issues are generating a lot of emotion that could translate into voter turnout: expansion of casino gambling and a proposed ban on same-sex marriage.

Both Dems and GOP have contested races on August 3

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On August 3rd, Democrats choose candidate for governor but both Republicans and Democrats have contested races. Our Campaign Watch-ers are keeping an eye on two races in particular. With so many candidaes in the Treasurer’s race, Jo Mannies thinks anybody could win. Steve Kraske thinks a lot of folks will be watching Jason Klumb, who many in western Missouri believe has statewide potential downt he road. August 3rd won’t be the first time Missourian’s have seen a crowded ballot for a primary campaign and we might see more as term-limited politicians look for another bit of the pie.

Political Pundits Wonder About Impact Of Democratic Debates

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Two veteran political reporters say it’s difficult to tell how much impact the debates will have on the Democratic gubernatorial primary, but they say the race right now is close. Governor Bob Holden and State Auditor Claire McCaskill have met in back-to-back debates. Public opinion polls show a tight race, within the margin of error. Kansas City Star political reporter Steve Kraske says the debate will have some impact. Kraske wonders, though, how many actually listened to the debates and how many Missourians only listened, read or watched coverage of them. St. Louis Post-Dispatch political reporter Jo Mannies discounts any long term impact. Mannies does say the debates fleshed out issues that we will hear as the campaigns go on.

Reporters remember skilled Carnahan

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A veteran political reporter says Mel Carnahan had considerable political skills that his formal manner often masked. St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter Jo Mannies covered the various campaigns of Carnahan for 10 years. She says opponents often underestimated his political skills, as did state lawmakers when Carnahan became governor in 1992. Both Mannies and Kansas City Star political reporter Steve Kraske say Carnahan was a private man who let very few reporters actually get to know him well.

Too close to call

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This morning’s Kansas City Star shows an even-split in Missouri’s U.S. Senate Race. The Star has 47% for John Ashcroft…and 43% for Mel Carnahan. The numbers are nearly identical to February’s poll; that one showed Ashcroft leading 47% to 44%. Those slim margins are within the polls’ margins of error. Kraske says the race is obviously going down to the wire. More than 600 Missourians participated in the poll.