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December through February period 9th coldest, supports persisting drought

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February in Missouri was 9 degrees colder than normal and capped off a meteorological winter that could rank the ninth coldest on record, and the coldest in 35 years.

This graphic, courtesy of the Missouri Climate Center, shows the average temperature for Missouri in February going back to 1895.

This graphic, courtesy of the Missouri Climate Center, shows the average temperature for Missouri in February going back to 1895.

State climatologist Pat Guinan at the University of Missouri says December, January and February all had below normal temperatures and of them, February was the coldest. He says preliminary data indicates a state average temperatures of 25 degrees Farenheit. Temperatures in northern Missouri were 12 degrees Fahrenheit below normal and in southern Missouri temperatures were 9 degrees colder.

That would make February 2014 the coldest since 1979.

“It was the jet stream,” Guinan says when asked why the last three months were so cold. “This winter it’s been incredibly stubborn. We’ve had a ridge of high pressure that has been parked off the West Coast bringing, of course, severe drought conditions to California for much of the winter … that actually drove the jet stream up into Canada and diving back down into the middle part of the country. That was basically an open avenue for all this arctic air just to come in reinforcing shots in December, January and on into February.”

Based on weather records that go back to 1895, Guinan says the past three months averaged 5 degrees Fahrenheit colder than any previous December through February period.

Guinan says the cold has impacted everyone in the state.

“Everybody witnessed higher heating bills because of these temperatures. Anybody who was working out doors, it was very stressful. Not to mention for people but for livestock and pets. I’m sure in the cattle industry it was difficult. Ranchers had to chop ice probably on a daily basis to get water for their livestock, and feeding hay … with these cold temperatures I’m sure there was higher demand for nutrition from the hay for the cattle.”

Parts of Missouri are as much as 10" below normal for precipitation since July 1, 2013.

Parts of Missouri are as much as 10″ below normal for precipitation since July 1, 2013.

 As for precipitation, Guinan says the past three months in Missouri were below normal, but above normal for snowfall.

“It’s still dry across much of Missouri,” Guinan says. “On the other hand … it’s been so cold that most of the precipitation events that did occur across Missouri fell in the form of snow or ice. That was sort of the irony behind that.”

The prolonged cold has exacerbated the drought in another way. Guinan says the ground in Missouri froze beginning in early December, and to a deeper level than usual. That has meant less of the precipitation that did fall soaked into the ground when it did thaw.

Some parts of the state are more than 10 inches below normal for accumulated precipitation since July 1, 2013. Guinan says significant precipitation events will be needed to replenish soil profiles and refill surface water supplies.

Climatologist: 2013 slightly cooler than normal, remembered for precipitation differences

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Missouri finished 2013 with a temperature average one degree cooler than the long-term average of 54.6 degrees Farenheit. The state’s climatologist says that’s quite a change from 2012, which was four degrees warmer than normal on average.

Pat Guinan

Pat Guinan

Pat Guinan says in Missouri temperature records going back to 1895, that’s a first.

“That’s an incredible disparity when you look from one year to the next in temperature departures,” says Guinan. “When we look back through the records you’re not going to find from one year to the next such incredible temperature differences.”

See more on Guinan’s summary of December and 2013

The other notable thing about Missouri weather in 2013, says Guinan, was its precipitation disparities. The year began with drought in much of the state that was alleviated by January and February precipitation, but soon the drought returned in the northern half of the state. Parts of southern and central Missouri saw 15 to 20 inches of rain in August that resulted in flooding, while parts of north Missouri recorded no rainfall that month.

This graphic illustrates the average annual temperature in Missouri from 1895 through 2013.

This graphic illustrates the average annual temperature in Missouri from 1895 through 2013.

He says if 2013 had been warmer, the drought would have been worse.

“In 2012 of course, we had the heat in combination with the lack of precipitation. That really drove the drought … gave it some teeth,” Guinan says. “In 2013 we did not have those extreme high temperatures. In fact if anything they were fairly cool. We had a lot of cloudy days during the summer of 2013 and that mitigated the drought potential that we saw across northern Missouri.”

Missouri has started off 2014 with nearly 20 percent of the state in what the U.S. Drought Monitor terms, “moderate drought,” and another 20 percent of the state “abnormally dry.”

Climatologist: more rain needed for winter wheat, end to drought

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Some parts of the state have received as much as five inches of rain in recent weeks, but the state’s climatologist says the drought is by no means over. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows the difference between the drought in Missouri on August 28 and the most recent update, September 11.

Pat Guinan says the remnants of Hurricane Isaac put a significant dent in it though. “Most of Missouri saw some widespread, significant rainfall over many hours. It was a steady, soaking rain that did well in regard to soaking into the soil profile.”

Guinan says over the Labor Day weekend, between one and five inches of rain fell in parts of the state, but there much more is needed. “This situation began to emerge several months ago, and since then we have accumulated a significant deficit. Even with the remnants of Isaac … here we are in the middle part of September and we still have deficits of anywhere from eight to twelve inches below normal since May 1.”

Fall would be a good time for the state to receive rain, to recover from the drought. “More systems moving through, bringing us better chances of precipitation. Of course, cooler temperatures lowers the evaporative loss that we get from the soil as well as water resources above the ground and so that’s more opportunity for anything that falls from up above to soak into the soil and start filling up those water resources that are still depleted across the state.”

Though the major growing season for soybeans and corn is winding down, Guinan reminds that another significant crop is about to be planted. “Winter wheat will be planted and the wheat needs moisture to germinate this fall and so it’s important that we do get some decent rain or precipitation events as we go into the fall and winter, establish that recharge so that we can have a good start to the growing season next year.”

It remains to be seen whether this year’s drought will be limited to this year, span into next year or last even longer. Guinan says there have been very significant multi-year droughts in Missouri, and he believes that what has happened before can happen again.

“I also want to indicate that there’s no real signal or sign that this is a cycle or that it will continue into next year. There have been periods in the past like in 1980 … we had a very hot, dry summer in 1980 and there was concern that 1981 was going to also be a droughty growing season, but it was just the opposite. We had one of our wettest summers on record in 1981.”

Climatologist urges Missourians to report drought impacts

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One of the tools used by federal officials in assessing drought and making decisions about it is the U.S. Drought Monitor. Its information could play a role in what Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack does with Governor Jay Nixon’s request that every county in the state be declared a disaster area due to drought.

Click the image to go to the Drought Impact Reporter

State Climatologist Pat Guinan says Missourians can make sure the people updating the Monitor have all the information. That can be done through the Drought Impact Reporter. “You provide your information in regard to where you’re reporting this impact from and what sort of impact you’re seeing, be it water shortages, livestock ponds that are low, pastures that are all burned up … you can even submit pictures of the impact that you’re witnessing at your area.”

Guinan says it makes a difference. “That information automatically gets submitted or dispatched to the Drought Monitor author, who then can use that sort of information to make assessments on the severity level of the drought that’s impacting the area. I’m a firm believer that the more people who participate in the drought decision process, the better the depiction or accurate portrayal that we will have of drought across the country.”

Guinan says he can’t predict what federal officials will do with the Governor’s disaster declaration request, but he says there is no doubt this drought is historic.

“When we look at the numbers that are coming in of the crop conditions, of the heat that we’ve seen … we’re making comparisons to 1988 in regards to the crop conditions.”

He says the streaks of triple-digit temperature days are also comparable to the 1980s and the dust bowl era. “Some locations in Missouri, we’ve seen 10, 11 days continuous streak of triple-digit heat. That’s something we haven’t seen in more than 30 years in some location. Some, in fact, 80 years.”

Drought accompanied by less severe weather (AUDIO)

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Worsening drought conditions across much of the country might come with some small benefit.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook shows only a slight risk for severe weather in the U.S. through tomorrow. (Click image to go to the Center’s website.)

University of Missouri Climatologist Pat Guinan says the correlation is simple. Less rain means less severe weather. “If there ever is a positive impact due to drought, I guess that would be one of the very few things, in regard to the lack of severe weather.”

Guinan says the month of May, 2012 saw roughly a third of the usual number of tornadoes in the U.S. and no tornado-related fatalities. That’s in stark contrast to May of last year, when over 175 people died in tornadoes in the U.S.

Guinan says few would see the trade of drought for severe weather as reason to celebrate though, because drought effects a far greater area and number of people than an isolated thunderstorm or tornado. This drought is no exception, and extends well beyond Missouri.

“With this emerging drought that began as early as April in southeastern Missouri and has spread northward in the month of May and is pretty much now covering the entire state of Missouri, and beyond that much of Kansas, parts of southeast Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois over into southern Wisconsin, Indiana down into Kentucky to the sea, even in Arkansas.”

Areas in and near Washington D.C., Maryland and Virginia, where severe weather hit on Friday, are classified by the U.S. Drought Monitor as “abnormally dry.”

Guinan says the central U.S. remains under the influence of high pressure that has kept severe weather at bay, while the jet stream has also remained unusually far to the north, keeping more active weather to the northern U.S.

AUDIO:  Mike Lear interviews Pat Guinan, 15:50

MU Climatologist: May, June dryness reminiscent of 1988 drought

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May 2012, the eighth dryest May on record in Missouri, is being followed by what will likely be a June in the top 10 for dryness as well. University of Missouri climatologist Pat Guinan says if you want this drought to end, that’s not a good omen.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map for Missouri (click link to go to U.S. Drought Monitor website).

Guinan says May and June usually make up the wettest two-month period in a year in Missouri, with around 10 inches of rain. So far the two months have seen only about 4 inches. That’s drawing comparisons to 1988, when began a drought that lasted two years.

“That was a historic drought that impacted much of the central and western part of the country,” he tells Missourinet. “In fact, when you look at the economic damage that was due to the 1988 drought you have to go all the way back to the dust bowl years of the 1930s.”

Guinan says triple digit numbers are also unusual in the month of June another fact he says compares to 1988.

There is no sign that the hot, dry pattern is going to lift.

“The latest (outlook) for the month of July is not encouraging,” he says. “They are indicating above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation across all of Missouri.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor information has 13 counties in southeast Missouri all or partly in extreme drought.

Climatologist: dry May usually a harbinger of more parched conditions

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State Climatologist Pat Guinan says Missouri is more than five inches behind in rainfall since May 1.

What is usually Missouri’s rainiest month of the year, May, was anything but, and a state climatologist says that tends to be a bad sign for the rest of the summer.

Pat Guinan says, “When you have a dry May, generally the pattern that we see the following summer, at least historically, is for the summer season to be hotter and drier than normal. There are exceptions to that but the overall trend is for a hotter and drier summer to emerge when we have a very dry May.”

Guinan says May 2012 ranks as the 8th dryest on record. Even after storms yesterday, some parts of the state are still more than five inches off the average rainfall total since May 1.

Guinan says the long-term outlook for the summer is unclear, partly because forecasters have no warming or cooling of the Pacific Ocean, commonly called El Nino or La Nina, influencing the forecast. A La Nina that had lasted through the winter ended about a month ago.

“At least according to what the Climate Prediction Center is saying, they are forecasting for most of Missouri, the summertime temperatures to be above normal, but when it came to the precipitation category they actually gave equal chances for above, below and near normal precipitation.”

Of Monday’s storms, that brought one to two inches of rain to some parts of Missouri, Guinan says, “It’s a step in the right direction, but we have a long way to go to make up a deficit that we’ve accumulated over several weeks this spring. We need a really good two inch soaker across the entire state. The topsoil is very dry and it’s going to take a significant amount of moisture to percolate through and moisten it up.”

Drought conditions are endangering crops (AUDIO)

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What is usually the rainiest month of the year in Missouri has been anything but, and a University of Missouri climatologist says the situation could soon be dire.

The map for 05-23-2012 from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network shows no measurable rain in the state for that date. (courtesy, CoCoRahs.org)

Some parts of the Bootheel have had less than 2 inches of rain since April 1. Pat Guinan says that region is on the verge of recording its dryest April and May period since 1895, and those conditions have been spreading.

“During the month of May this dryness began to spread northwestward, impacting south-central parts of the state, and then more recently over the past two to three weeks, pretty much the entire state is having to deal with a very dry situation: what I like to call a ‘flash drought.’ Already we have officially severe drought conditions impacting the Bootheel counties.”

Pat Guinan says other factors are compounding matters.

“We’ve seen unusually high rates of moisture loss in the soil profile and through vegetation because there’s a lot of sunshine, low humidities and high temperatures. That really sort of ramps up the situation and makes it more dire.”

The last few days in much of the state have brought seasonable temperatures, but Guinan says beginning today hotter readings could kill off some struggling crops.

“If we don’t receive any significant rain events over the next several days and we have temperatures that are up into the 90s, that’s going to really create some severe stress on some dry vegetation.”

Guinan says some forecasts models show cooler temperatures and significant precipitation in Missouri next week that could provide needed relief for crops.

AUDIO:   Mike Lear interviews Pat Guinan, 10:21