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Farmers considering fate of drought-stressed soybeans

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Farmers with soybeans dying in the fields and livestock to feed have a difficult choice to make.

Soybeans from a field near St. Joseph planted May 20 have blooms but no pods. Pictures courtesy of Karma Metzgar, University of Missouri Extension.

Many Missouri producers who last year had a hay surplus sold it to counterparts in drought-stricken states. Now those same Missouri farmers are experiencing drought and have to decide whether to give soybeans more time to possibly produce, or cut them for forage.

University of Missouri soybean specialist Bill Wiebold says it’s a tough call because soybeans have a long window of potential because they flower over about 40 days, compared to 6 to 8 days for corn.

“It causes soybean to be a little bit better capable of handling at least short-term stresses, and then all that built-in capacity that soybean has produces lots more flowers than they really need.”

Wiebold says the window is closing, however, and the last round of consecutive 100-degree-plus days might have been too much. “On a soybean plant it goes from ‘it doesn’t look too bad’ to ‘the leaves are dry and the plant is dead’ pretty quickly, and it’s hard to know when to pull the trigger and when to make that decision.”

What’s been applied on those crops?

Soybeans do offer good forage, but University of Missouri forage specialist Rob Kallenbach says farmers have to consider whether they’ve used any applications on that crop before feeding it to livestock. There is a risk that chemical residue could show up in meat or milk from animals that grazed on it.

“There are a number of those herbicides that have restrictions. 30-days, some of them are 60-days, some of them are the whole year, so you can’t the crop for hay or forage if some of these herbicides have been used.”

He says producers need to check labels or talk to suppliers to see what the dangers are.

Wiebold says fertilizers used on corn can also present risks.

“Corn plants will absorb nitrogen fertilizer through the roots and then they kinda store that as nitrate in the stem. When you feed that to an animal, particularly ruminants, that nitrate gets changed into nitrites that binds with the hemoglobin and oxygen can’t be transported around the body and you can kill them.”

Wiebold says he farmers are going to cut soybeans for feed, they should do it before leaves dry out. “Once they dry, they’re very fragile. They’ll break up, and that’s where all the nutrients are … you want to keep them on the plant.”

MU specialists urge patience.

Kallenbach says whatever farmers do with drought-stricken crops, they must make sure insurance assessors have seen them first.

“You need to talk with your adjuster and your insurance company prior to harvesting that crop for silage or for hay. Otherwise, when the adjuster shows up and the crop’s gone, you’re going to be disappointed in what he says your insurance amount should be.”

FAPRI analyst: Food price impact of drought not seen yet, but coming

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Corn and soybean market prices have hit record highs this week due to the Midwestern drought, but so far the impact on consumer prices is just beginning.

Drought damaged corn on the Goyings Farm in Paulding County, Ohio on Tuesday, July 17, 2012. USDA photo by Christina Reed.

Pat Westhoff is the Co-Director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri. He says a consumer price report for June shows similar food price inflation to previous months. Price hikes are coming, but he says they’ll take time to reach supermarkets.

Changes in prices for products made directly from corn and soybean oil will come first. “The main effects are going to be probably a bit delayed because they’re going to happen through the livestock sector. As we all know, cattle production doesn’t turn on a dime, so it’s going to tack a while before we see reduced cattle numbers translate into less beef and less beef eventually turns into higher prices. Same holds for pork, same holds for chicken.”

Some manufacturers might start adjusting prices soon in anticipating of higher input costs. Westhoff says, “It’s important to remember a lot of those items are items where the farm value of the products that’s in those items is very small. If you buy a box of cereal, the actual amount of corn or wheat or something that’s included in that box of cereal is a very, very small share of the overall value of that product on the grocery store shelf. So, changing the farm price of corn or wheat by a lot only has a very small in proportion impact on prices at the grocery store.”

The good news, Westhoff says, is that the U.S. had been on track for lower food prices were it not for the drought. “So what this may do is instead of causing a huge, fast rate of growth in food prices in front of us, it may just stop what would have otherwise have been a decline in food price inflation in the months ahead.”

Westhoff says exactly how bad this year’s drought is won’t be fully known until it’s over, but among analysts it’s already being placed among historic company. “Clearly this has lots of parallels at least to 1988, the last time we had a really, really severe drought across the entire country … some people say it may be worse than 1988 already. Maybe more like some of the droughts of the 1950s.

“So there are some historic parallels but of course there are lots of things different in the world now than was the case back then.”

More of Missouri now in ‘extreme’ drought

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Click on the image to go to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor update for Missouri.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor illustrates the continued intensifying of the drought across Missouri, and throughout the country.

About 23 percent of the state is now in the “extreme” drought stage, the second highest. That touches 16 counties in southeast Missouri and has spread to part or all of 24 counties in north-central Missouri.

Over 70 percent of the state is in what the Monitor calls “severe” drought, and the rest in “moderate.”

A narrow strip of Mississippi County is classified as in “exceptional” drought, part of an area that extends into Kentucky, southern Illinois and southern Indiana.

Farmers seeking loans to get HELP

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The State Treasurer’s Office wants to make sure farmers seeking loans under the Missouri Linked Deposit program get a prompt response.

State Treasurer Clint Zweifel has authorized making the entire state eligible for the Harmed area Emergency Loan Priority System, or HELP. That makes farmers applying for those low-interest loans eligible for 24-hour approvals.

“When someone needs help and they’re going through a difficult time and they’re in a disaster county … I think 24 hours versus 10 days makes a big difference in terms of making sure that we’re helping them deal with a difficult situation.”

Loans are normally approved in 10 days.

Climatologist urges Missourians to report drought impacts

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One of the tools used by federal officials in assessing drought and making decisions about it is the U.S. Drought Monitor. Its information could play a role in what Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack does with Governor Jay Nixon’s request that every county in the state be declared a disaster area due to drought.

Click the image to go to the Drought Impact Reporter

State Climatologist Pat Guinan says Missourians can make sure the people updating the Monitor have all the information. That can be done through the Drought Impact Reporter. “You provide your information in regard to where you’re reporting this impact from and what sort of impact you’re seeing, be it water shortages, livestock ponds that are low, pastures that are all burned up … you can even submit pictures of the impact that you’re witnessing at your area.”

Guinan says it makes a difference. “That information automatically gets submitted or dispatched to the Drought Monitor author, who then can use that sort of information to make assessments on the severity level of the drought that’s impacting the area. I’m a firm believer that the more people who participate in the drought decision process, the better the depiction or accurate portrayal that we will have of drought across the country.”

Guinan says he can’t predict what federal officials will do with the Governor’s disaster declaration request, but he says there is no doubt this drought is historic.

“When we look at the numbers that are coming in of the crop conditions, of the heat that we’ve seen … we’re making comparisons to 1988 in regards to the crop conditions.”

He says the streaks of triple-digit temperature days are also comparable to the 1980s and the dust bowl era. “Some locations in Missouri, we’ve seen 10, 11 days continuous streak of triple-digit heat. That’s something we haven’t seen in more than 30 years in some location. Some, in fact, 80 years.”

Drought accompanied by less severe weather (AUDIO)

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Worsening drought conditions across much of the country might come with some small benefit.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook shows only a slight risk for severe weather in the U.S. through tomorrow. (Click image to go to the Center’s website.)

University of Missouri Climatologist Pat Guinan says the correlation is simple. Less rain means less severe weather. “If there ever is a positive impact due to drought, I guess that would be one of the very few things, in regard to the lack of severe weather.”

Guinan says the month of May, 2012 saw roughly a third of the usual number of tornadoes in the U.S. and no tornado-related fatalities. That’s in stark contrast to May of last year, when over 175 people died in tornadoes in the U.S.

Guinan says few would see the trade of drought for severe weather as reason to celebrate though, because drought effects a far greater area and number of people than an isolated thunderstorm or tornado. This drought is no exception, and extends well beyond Missouri.

“With this emerging drought that began as early as April in southeastern Missouri and has spread northward in the month of May and is pretty much now covering the entire state of Missouri, and beyond that much of Kansas, parts of southeast Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois over into southern Wisconsin, Indiana down into Kentucky to the sea, even in Arkansas.”

Areas in and near Washington D.C., Maryland and Virginia, where severe weather hit on Friday, are classified by the U.S. Drought Monitor as “abnormally dry.”

Guinan says the central U.S. remains under the influence of high pressure that has kept severe weather at bay, while the jet stream has also remained unusually far to the north, keeping more active weather to the northern U.S.

AUDIO:  Mike Lear interviews Pat Guinan, 15:50

Weather service heat warnings, watches and advisories blanket Missouri

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Nearly all of Missouri is covered by either an excessive heat warning or a heat advisory, both issued by the National Weather Service.

This map shows National Weather Service products in place as of 11:00 A.M. cst. Click on the image to go to the current map, then click on your area on the map to go to the website for the Weather Service office that covers it.

Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the Service’s Kansas City area office, Andy Bailey, explains the differences between the two.

“When we’re looking at excessive heat warnings we’re looking at a little more severe conditions than with a heat advisory … either more severe or more prolonged. Probably the reason you see those warnings already in effect over western Missouri and eastern Kansas is that that’s where the heat’s going to strike first. If we see this event unfold over the course of several days and we see day after day of extreme heat you’ll probably start to see those excessive heat warnings progress further to the east.”

While the two products indicate different information, Bailey says the public is urged to do similar things when either is in place.

“What they need to do is limit their outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day. We tell people they can either conduct whatever they have to do outside early in the morning or late in the evening when temperatures have cooled off a bit that would be best. they need to drink plenty of clear liquids … things like water … certainly non-alcoholic beverages because alcohol actually speeds up the dehydration process.”

The Weather Service also asks people to check on those who may be particularly at risk in extreme heat. “Check on elderly neighbors or relatives as well. Make sure they’re doing OK. If they don’t have air conditioning, bring them someplace that does, whether it’s their own home or cooling centers around the region.”

Children also require additional attention. “Kids can actually be more vulnerable to the heat than adults. They’ve got littler bodies, littler body masses, and it’s easier for their temperatures to raise quicker so certainly you need to bring them in periodically. If you head to the swimming pool make sure they’re slathered with plenty of sunscreen because sunburn will also exasperate the heat’s effects as well.”

Click the image with this story to go to the National Weather Service for the latest information on the heat warnings and watches in effect in the state. You can follow links to the Weather Service office for your area.

MU Climatologist: May, June dryness reminiscent of 1988 drought

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May 2012, the eighth dryest May on record in Missouri, is being followed by what will likely be a June in the top 10 for dryness as well. University of Missouri climatologist Pat Guinan says if you want this drought to end, that’s not a good omen.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map for Missouri (click link to go to U.S. Drought Monitor website).

Guinan says May and June usually make up the wettest two-month period in a year in Missouri, with around 10 inches of rain. So far the two months have seen only about 4 inches. That’s drawing comparisons to 1988, when began a drought that lasted two years.

“That was a historic drought that impacted much of the central and western part of the country,” he tells Missourinet. “In fact, when you look at the economic damage that was due to the 1988 drought you have to go all the way back to the dust bowl years of the 1930s.”

Guinan says triple digit numbers are also unusual in the month of June another fact he says compares to 1988.

There is no sign that the hot, dry pattern is going to lift.

“The latest (outlook) for the month of July is not encouraging,” he says. “They are indicating above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation across all of Missouri.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor information has 13 counties in southeast Missouri all or partly in extreme drought.

Dept. of Natural Resources monitoring drought

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Drought conditions are worsening across the state, but are still not serious enough that the Department of Natural Resources has activated its drought response plan.

The latest information from the U.S. Drought Monitor, from June 12. (Click image to go to the U.S. Drought Monitor's website)

Water Resources Center director Ryan Miller says conditions are getting close to those triggers, however. He says DNR is closely monitoring the situation and working with local and national agencies. “We do have some areas of moderate drought in both northeast and southeast Missouri, and then some areas of severe drought in extreme southeast Missouri. We’re continuing to discuss long-term climate and weather forecasts, also looking at things like groundwater levels, stream flows and other hydrologic indicators that we have as part of our assessment tools.”

Miller says there are several signs DNR looks for to begin implementing its plan. “Looking at stream flows, looking at groundwater levels, looking at levels in many of the state’s reservoirs and water supply impoundments. Then, there are several, what are called “long-term drought indices,” primarily the Palmer Index, and that takes into account long-term soil moistures and other water in storage for the state.”

Click here to see the state’s drought plan. 

The impacts that have been reported to the Department so far all involve agriculture. Those have included slow emergence of crops, more expense associated with earlier and more frequent irrigation and the conditions of pasture and hay.  Miller says that is significant, but adds, “Thankfully we have not received any reports of impacts to public water supplies around the state, and we do continue to monitor reservoirs, the streams, the aquifers.”

The U.S. Drought Monitor’s next update will be available on Thursday.

Climatologist: dry May usually a harbinger of more parched conditions

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State Climatologist Pat Guinan says Missouri is more than five inches behind in rainfall since May 1.

What is usually Missouri’s rainiest month of the year, May, was anything but, and a state climatologist says that tends to be a bad sign for the rest of the summer.

Pat Guinan says, “When you have a dry May, generally the pattern that we see the following summer, at least historically, is for the summer season to be hotter and drier than normal. There are exceptions to that but the overall trend is for a hotter and drier summer to emerge when we have a very dry May.”

Guinan says May 2012 ranks as the 8th dryest on record. Even after storms yesterday, some parts of the state are still more than five inches off the average rainfall total since May 1.

Guinan says the long-term outlook for the summer is unclear, partly because forecasters have no warming or cooling of the Pacific Ocean, commonly called El Nino or La Nina, influencing the forecast. A La Nina that had lasted through the winter ended about a month ago.

“At least according to what the Climate Prediction Center is saying, they are forecasting for most of Missouri, the summertime temperatures to be above normal, but when it came to the precipitation category they actually gave equal chances for above, below and near normal precipitation.”

Of Monday’s storms, that brought one to two inches of rain to some parts of Missouri, Guinan says, “It’s a step in the right direction, but we have a long way to go to make up a deficit that we’ve accumulated over several weeks this spring. We need a really good two inch soaker across the entire state. The topsoil is very dry and it’s going to take a significant amount of moisture to percolate through and moisten it up.”