Missourinet

Your source for Missouri News and Sports

You are here: Home / Archives for drought

Drought expands slightly in Missouri since last week

By

Graphics courtesy; US Drought Monitor

Graphics courtesy; US Drought Monitor

Two more percent of Missouri is categorized as being in drought conditions according to the latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor, released this morning.

A look at the Drought Monitor Map reveals that “abnormally dry” conditions have spread farther south, particularly in the Kansas City area. Three percent more of the state is listed in that category than in the previous week. Slightly less of the state is considered to be in “moderate drought.”  

The Seasonal Drought Outlook released last week by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center includes a prediction that drought in Missouri will persist or intensify through February 28, 2014.

Drought conditions return to Missouri

By

Drought has returned to Missouri.

The U.S. Drought monitor update posted on Thursday.

The U.S. Drought monitor updates are posted each Thursday.

The U.S. Drought Monitor now places more than half the state in its “abnormally dry” category and most of northwest Missouri is rated as in “moderate” drought. This, after none of the state was categorized by the drought monitor at the beginning of the month.

Meteorologist Ryan Cutter says the state began drying out in June and there is no meteorological reason he can point to as a cause.

“Nothing really great out there, there’s no large-scale signal … for example El Nino, La Nina … that I would necessarily attribute this to here in this portion of the country.”

This drought is setting in much later than in 2012, when the first “moderate drought” categorization appeared in early May. Cutter says the later onset doesn’t mean that this drought couldn’t reach the severe or extreme levels of last year.

“It’s more than just simply has it rained or has it not rained, because they’re looking at indications of the plants and other environmental indicators across the region to determine whether or not a drought has really set in.”

Cutter says a normal amount of rain for the summer would be enough to keep Missouri from reaching those levels of drought, and as little as a couple of inches soon could mitigate drought in the short-term.

Fortunately, Cutter says, there is some rain in the forecast for next week.

Drought lessened in Southeast Missouri, still ‘severe’ in Western Missouri

By

The drought has lessened in parts of Missouri, but it hasn’t broken and is still considered severe in nearly 40 percent of the state according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor update for Missouri.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor update for Missouri.

A system that caused flooding in southeastern Missouri has eased the drought there, according to National Weather Service hydrologist Mark Fuchs, but much of Missouri didn’t get very much rainfall.

“The areas that did (get significant rain) would be areas basically just south of St. Louis down into south-central Missouri and points east, like over toward like Cape Girardeau, did get some fairly decent drought relief.”

The rain also significantly raised the level of the Mississippi River by as much as 9 feet in places, but Fuchs says much more rain is needed before the drought can really be broken.

“We’re going to need repeated events of precipitation that we really haven’t seen this winter yet, but the key will be this spring. If we get some substantial rainfall in the spring that will go a long way to helping solve the moisture deficit across central and western Missouri.”

Fuchs says the Weather Service’s outlook for precipitation into the spring is pretty ambiguous.

“For the state of Missouri, more or less equal chances of above, near average or below average precipitation for the month of February or the three-month period from February through April, which is essentially a very fancy way of saying, ‘We’re not really sure.’ Some models are showing we could see above average rainfall, some models are showing we could see below average rainfall. There’s no real clear consensus in the modeling.”

NOAA releases winter outlook

By

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting warmer and drier than normal conditions in much of Missouri for December, January and February.

Click the image to go to NOAA’s winter outlook.

Deputy Director of the Administration’s Climate Prediction Center Mike Halpert says NOAA’s winter outlook calls for above normal temperatures in, “much of Texas northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies and the eastern halves of Washington, Oregon and California as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.”

The northern half of Missouri is also predicted to have below normal precipitation in December, January and February, with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation in the southern half of the state.

As for whether or not this year’s historic drought will continue, the report doesn’t cover that but Halpert refers to the climate center’s drought outlook that extends to about halfway through January.

“The large majority of that drought we expect to persist. Kind of a negative thing is that we even see drought expanding westward along the northern tier, so into Montana and Idaho and parts of Oregon and Washington. Really, if you look at the precipitation forecast, the favored category where there is one is all for “below.”

The outlook is based on what are seen as the mostly likely probable outcomes, but Halpert says they could change. One variable is what he calls an “indecisive El Nino” this year.

“Typically by mid October we have a clear picture of the emerging climate factors that will influence the winter season, including whether El Nino or La Nina will occur. That has not been the case this year, however. A few months ago El Nino appeared likely to develop and persist through the winter but its development abruptly halted last month and sea surface temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific have largely returned to normal. We do still see some signs, however, that El Nino could still develop over the next few months and that possibility was taken into account for this outlook.”

Commission of legislators, citizens to look at drought impacts on agriculture

By

A Commission has been formed to study the damage done to Missouri’s ag industry by the drought and the down economy. 

Representative Bill Reiboldt (R-Neosho)

Representative Bill Reiboldt (R-Neosho) will chair the group.  He is, himself, a farmer in southeast Missouri. He says in his own operation, he had to cut his corn crop for silage and much of his soybean crop was used for hay.

Reiboldt says there is a lot of concern over maintaining Missouri’s rank as the nation’s number two cow-calf state.

“A lot of people, because of the lack of hay and the cost of buying hay, will be selling their stock herd … their mama cows. A lot of people will be forced into selling their cows, and we’re already looking at a time when the cattle industry has been hurt. Our cattle numbers are as low as they’ve been since the 1950s, is my understanding.”

Reiboldt says once a person gets out of a cattle operation, especially a dairy operation, getting back in presents many challenges that make it unlikely they will get back in.

“A cow that is born and raised in Missouri can go other places to live, but it’s hard to bring a cow from other areas into Missouri. So, we’re concerned about the cow-calf industry in Missouri. We’re concerned about the dairy industry in Missouri … because so many of the smaller dairymen are having to sell out because they don’t have the feed. We’re concerned about the price of corn and other commodities and how it will affect a poultry industry and the hog industry in Missouri.”

Reiboldt says the group will look at a lot of possible ways producers might be helped. “We’re going to be looking at some water issues into the future. We’re going to be looking at irrigation. We’re going to be looking at definitely rebuilding the cow-calf industry in Missouri and what ways can we be of help. For example, if a person has to completely disperse a part or all of their herd, can we spread that tax liability over several years so that we can buy back?”

The other members of the commission are Representatives Jay Houghton (R-Martinsburg), Tony Dugger (R-Hartville) and Diane Franklin (R-Camdenton), as well as citizen members Lonny Duckworth of Duckworth Farms, Lloyd Gunter of Gunter Farms, Brent Sandidge of Ham Hills Farms and Greg Scharpe of Pioneer Seed.

The Commission will schedule four meetings around the state between now and the end of the year.

Climatologist: more rain needed for winter wheat, end to drought

By

Some parts of the state have received as much as five inches of rain in recent weeks, but the state’s climatologist says the drought is by no means over. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows the difference between the drought in Missouri on August 28 and the most recent update, September 11.

Pat Guinan says the remnants of Hurricane Isaac put a significant dent in it though. “Most of Missouri saw some widespread, significant rainfall over many hours. It was a steady, soaking rain that did well in regard to soaking into the soil profile.”

Guinan says over the Labor Day weekend, between one and five inches of rain fell in parts of the state, but there much more is needed. “This situation began to emerge several months ago, and since then we have accumulated a significant deficit. Even with the remnants of Isaac … here we are in the middle part of September and we still have deficits of anywhere from eight to twelve inches below normal since May 1.”

Fall would be a good time for the state to receive rain, to recover from the drought. “More systems moving through, bringing us better chances of precipitation. Of course, cooler temperatures lowers the evaporative loss that we get from the soil as well as water resources above the ground and so that’s more opportunity for anything that falls from up above to soak into the soil and start filling up those water resources that are still depleted across the state.”

Though the major growing season for soybeans and corn is winding down, Guinan reminds that another significant crop is about to be planted. “Winter wheat will be planted and the wheat needs moisture to germinate this fall and so it’s important that we do get some decent rain or precipitation events as we go into the fall and winter, establish that recharge so that we can have a good start to the growing season next year.”

It remains to be seen whether this year’s drought will be limited to this year, span into next year or last even longer. Guinan says there have been very significant multi-year droughts in Missouri, and he believes that what has happened before can happen again.

“I also want to indicate that there’s no real signal or sign that this is a cycle or that it will continue into next year. There have been periods in the past like in 1980 … we had a very hot, dry summer in 1980 and there was concern that 1981 was going to also be a droughty growing season, but it was just the opposite. We had one of our wettest summers on record in 1981.”

Recent rains do not mean salvation for corn, soybeans

By

Rain the last two weeks might be too late to be of any help to the state’s soybean and corn farmers.

Just because soybean fields are green and don’t look dry like most cornfields this year, does not mean they are productive. (Photo courtesy, Karma Metzgar)

Some soybean farmers resisted cutting their crops for silage, hoping to salvage a bigger crop out of them. University of Missouri Agronomist Bill Wiebold says rains in the last couple of weeks could help maintain the pods that are there or make seeds a little larger, but that’s about it.

“I think they’ve helped a little but not very much. What we have gone through this summer, soybean plants have flowered and flowered and flowered but not kept very many of those flowers on, and so the plants have very few pods on them and just no capacity or very little capacity to produce any additional flowers.”

Corn plants, most of which died weeks ago, now run the additional risk of fungal infection as a result of rain. Wiebold says that makes harvesting what is left as soon as possible a priority.

“Even though the yield’s not very good, every bushel that we can bring in is income. What we’ve been saying is a timely harvest, even with a poor harvest in terms of yield … is still important.”

Wiebold says the harvest of most soybeans will begin in about three weeks.

Ag leaders and elected officials discuss emergency cost-share effectiveness

By

Governor Jay Nixon says the emergency cost-share program he implemented has slowed the sell-off of cattle from the state. Some critics, though, are questioning its effectiveness and where the money is coming from, and accusing him of using it to get exposure for his campaign for re-election.

Agriculture Director Jon Hagler explained this graph to members of the governor’s cabinet, agriculture leaders, media members and others at a drought update at the State Fair. Courtesy, the Missouri Department of Agriculture. (Click to view larger version.)

During a meeting of some of the Governor’s cabinet members at the State Fair for a drought update, Agriculture Director Jon Hagler tells Nixon what data supports the claim the program is working, with a study of 550 pound steers in the state and their value between June 8 and August 15.

“We announced the executive order on (July 23). You can see that on the twenty-seventh we begin what is a change in the price … a steady decline in the market … this is only Missouri … a steady decline turns around and starts increasing in our 550 pounds steers and if you look, volume starts to trail off. I think we’re having … it’s not the sole factor … but I think the livestock program in particular is having a significant calming impact.”

Missouri Cattlemen’s Association President Lonnie Duckworth says the program is helping, but he describes it as a “band-aid.”

“When you look at 108,000 farms in this state and the money he has available to him is going to help about 450 farm operations. That’s not just beef cattle. That’s spread over beef, poultry, dairy and I’ve also heard some irrigation wells for some crop farmers.”

The latest update from the Governor’s office says about 4,600 applications have been approved at a cost of about 4,800 dollars each. That adds up to over 22 million dollars. The program began with 2 million dollars from the Soil and Water Commission. 4.8 million was kicked in later, and Nixon says now the Commission is looking for more.

“We’re working with them to find other cost share resources in that area. I had a good session with the chairman and those folks this week … we’re also looking on our side, on the emergency management side, through the state emergency management expense line to find resources. Also, our community development block grants are used to increase economic development in those areas. We’ll find those resources there.”

Nixon says the program has an economic development component by adding lasting value to the properties improved under it. He also says the program is helping to maintain the state’s rank as the number two cow-calf state in the nation.

Governor Jay Nixon answers questions for members of the media after the Governor’s Ham Breakfast at the Missouri State Fair.

“We want to stay there. If folks are selling their herds, we’re not going to be. I understand you’ve got to sell off some and cull here and there, but if we have a year in which we dramatically drop, then the investment it would take by Missouri families to get back up there would be too daunting. So our goal is to keep the same herd out there.”

Asked whether the state can maintain that number two ranking, Duckworth says, “It’s questionable.

“I can’t remember if it was Nebraska or Oklahoma was number two last year … I believe it was Oklahoma. Of course they were very dry last year. They had to sell off a number of cows. That catapulted us back into the second spot. It may turn around this year, but Oklahoma’s not a whole lot better off than we are … Oklahoma and northern Texas. Now central Texas and on south seem to be in a much better condition, and some of our breeding cows that are being sold here are going to Texas.”

Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder accuses Nixon of using the cost-share program to travel the state for exposure during campaign season. He says he’s heard the program was “not going over well” in Neosho, but can offer no details.

“I gotta tell you I heard this third hand. I was not in Neosho, I was in Joplin and Springfield and I heard that when you drill down into this program, there wasn’t much there. It was hard to access this program. It was more of another photo-op for the photo-op governor than it was a real program that really assists people.”

Duckworth says he applauds the Governor for trying to do something.

“He knows that agriculture is a very important and integral part of our state economy … and he has budget constraints obviously. You can’t help everybody, but hopefully at least it will help some people and it’s a gallant effort on his part to try to do that and recognize agriculture’s importance in this state.”

Tests could show if elk deaths are drought related

By

The Conservation Department is investigating whether the drought is responsible for the deaths of some of the elk the state has imported over the last two years.

Photo taken by Michael Dougherty, courtesy Missouri Department of Conservation.

Biologist Lonnie Hansen says several have died recently, and there is no doubt the drought is impacting them but it’s unclear if it’s a factor in those deaths.

“You know we’ve put them into a pretty rough environment with the drought and last year, when they were released, we had good conditions. We had great food plots and this year the food plots are all dried up and while the elk are tough and they can make a living out of what’s in the woods and things, we are seeing a bit of mortality as a result of, we think at least somehow related to the drought that we’re seeing down in southeast Missouri.”

Hansen says it is likely that drought will be no more than a contributing factor in those deaths. “Generally elk are very adaptable and very tough critters and we expect, while there might be some setbacks here and there, they’ll still do well.”

Samples from the dead animals have been sent to the University of Missouri and the University of Georgia. Hansen says of what he expects the results will reveal, “These animals, to get them here went through a lot of stress and so it’s probably more related to a combination of factors and we’re trying to figure those out right now to see if there’s anything we can do to resolve some of the issues.”

Study: St. Louis experiencing more frequent heat waves

By

The Union of Concerned Scientists says dangerous heat waves are happening more often in St. Louis, and posing a more frequent threat to residents.  It’s released a report called Heat in the Heartland:  A Look Back at 60 Years of Warming in the Midwest.

Click the image to go to the report’s fact sheet on St. Louis.

The report looked at how summer air masses have changed during the last 6 decades. Climate Scientist Todd Sanford says one type of air mass that negatively affects human health has become more frequent.

“The city now has twice as many … nine or more days on average … of the hottest and most humid weather each summer than in the mid 1940s. That’s not to say that every summer sees nine more days of this hot weather. Some may see more, some less, but this is what the average St. Louis summer can now expect.”

Sanford says St. Louis can also expect four fewer cooler, dry days, and less relief at night. “Temperatures on hot, humid nights have actually risen over the period by just over two degrees farenheit, while 3 a.m. temperatures on hot dry nights are also going up and now they’re on average about four-and-a-half degrees higher than they were about 60 years ago.”

More heat means more health risks

Co-Author and post-doctoral fellow Jalonne White-Newsome says part of the motivation for the study is to drive home the threat that extreme heat is to human health.

“One of the major concerns is trying to make sure that people understand that heat is a risk regardless of who you are, especially when the weather is hot and humid or hot and dry. Our bodies in general find it somewhat challenging to adapt sometimes in this hot, humid weather.”

White-Newsome says not having cool nights to recuperate from the heat poses a particular concern.

“What happens is that if your body really doesn’t get any relief at night that it normally would on a cool summer evening, there’s a harvesting effect that happens and so the body just continues to heat up, and that again can progress from heat stress to heat stroke.”

2012 already a tragic year in St. Louis

City Health Director Pamela Walker says there have been 24 heat-related deaths so far this year in St. Louis.

“I think all but one of those were in that 10 day period starting June 28 and ending July 7. We had 19 for all of last year in the region.”

The study looked at the same information for Detroit, Chicago, Cincinnati and Minneapolis and found similar patterns. St. Louis showed the strongest change of those cities.

It also compared St. Louis data to readings from the airport near Columbia, which is in a more rural area, and found similar patterns. It concludes that changes in St. Louis were consistent with a regional climate change in the last six decades.

The study was not intended to determine whether human activity is responsible for any changes.