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Veteran political reporters offer thoughts on GOP Convention

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Just days after the Democratic National Convention wrapped up in Denver, the Republican National Convention is getting underway in Saint Paul, Minnesota. A couple of veteran political reporters – Jo Mannies with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Steve Kraske with the Kansas City Star – expects to see as much talk about Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama as they do about GOP candidate John McCain.

Mannies says there have been a lot of negative comments from Republicans regarding the Obama candidacy, and she expects the negativity to continue. Kraske has no doubt that is going to happen because, in his view, the negative campaigning is working in places like Missouri and elsewhere in the country.

As for the need to reach out to certain voters, Mannies thinks McCain will tailor his message to suburban voters, saying most rural residents are likely to vote Republican while most urban voters can be expected to support Democrats. It is the suburban voters, she says, who hold the key to the election in November. Kraske goes along with that, adding he believes conservative voters – while they might have doubts about McCain – will support the Arizona Senator on election Day.

Download/Listen: Steve Walsh report (60 MP3)
Download/Listen: Campaign Watch – Steve Walsh interviews Jo Mannies and Steve Kraske (8:00 MP3)

Missouri Democrats gather with party in Denver

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Missouri Democrats have gathered in Denver for the Democratic National Convention , anxious to see their presidential candidate shore up support within the party so he can take on Republicans this fall.

Kansas City Star political reporter Steve Kraske flatly states what faces Barack Obama this week, "He needs a bump out of this convention and he needs it in a very bad way."

The luster of the Obama presidential campaign has dulled a bit and fallout from Hillary Clinton supporters lingers.

That’s not a good combination says St. Louis Post-Dispatch political reporter Jo Mannies, "I think it’s the kind of drama he really doesn’t need."

Both Mannies and Kraske question the value of conventions these days. Kraske says some voters first tune in to the race during the conventions. Mannies calls them week-long infomercials. Kraske says they produce little news, though they might provide some voters with their first real view of the candidates.

Missouri Democrats reflect how close the Obama-Clinton race was. Obama barely won the state and the delegates split 36-36 between Obama and Clinton. Nearly all the super delegates have gone to Obama.

You can listen to the entire interview with Kraske and Mannies on this week’s Campaign Watch.

Download/listen Brent Martin reports (:60 MP3)

Political reporters discuss the shape of the face for governor

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Many plots and sub-plots have arisen out of the primary election as a heated general election season gets underway. Two top political reporters say they are intrigued by how the race for governor will shake out.

Republicans have settled on Congressman Kenny Hulshof as their nominee to face Democrat Jay Nixon for the seat Matt Blunt is giving up. The campaign between Hulshof and Treasurer Sarah Steelman was close. Hulshof won by slightly more than four percent of the vote.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch political reporter Jo Mannies says she’s waiting to see what happens in the aftermath of a tough primary race, whether Sarah Steelman moves to heal the party rift and endorse Hulshof.

Both Mannies and Kansas City Star political reporter Steve Kraske believe Steelman exposed some weakness in the Hulshof campaign that will be used against him in the general election. Kraske says Steelman turned Hulshof’s experience in Congress, first elected in 1996, against him, a tactic Nixon has already picked up on.

Kraske and Mannies will provide insight into Missouri politics throughout this political season on the Missourinet’s special report; Campaign Watch. You can hear the entire program by clicking on the link on the front of this Web site. 

Download/listen Brent Martin reports (:60 MP3)

Missouri voters made statements Tuesday, some by not showing up

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Missouri voters made a statement on Tuesday, both those who cast ballots as well as those who didn’t show, according to two long-time political observers.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch political reporter Jo Mannies says that what stood out to her about Tuesday’s primary election was the low turn-out. Election officials had hoped for a turnout between 30 and 35%, but only about 19% of the state’s registered voters bothered to go to the polls. Mannies says turnout was especially low among Democrats, in particular in the First Congressional District of St. Louis, in which less than 15% of the registered voters cast ballots. Mannies says that’s important, because the First District is largely African-American and it appears resident voters aren’t energized without Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama being on the ballot. She says that might make a difference come November.

Kansas City Star political reporter Steve Kraske focuses on the small margin of victory in the Republican gubernatorial primary in which Kenny Hulshof edged Sarah Steelman. Hulshof squeezed out a victory, winning 49.2% of the vote to Steelman’s 44.7%. Kraske says Hulshof needed to emerge from the primary with a double-digit victory to create the momentum he needs to defeat Democrat Jay Nixon in November. Kraske says Hulshof had clear advantages going into Tuesday’s primary with the Republican apparatus clearly behind him, including the endorsement of US Senator Christopher Bond. The strong showing of Steelman doesn’t bode well for Hulshof in the general election.

Both Kraske and Mannies will be commenting on Missouri politics through the November elections on the Missourinet’s special program; Campaign Watch, which begins Monday. A broadcast version of the program will be aired on many Missourinet affiliates. A longer version will be posted on this Web site. 

Download/listen Brent Martin reports (:60 MP3)

Thomas Holds Slim Lead in GOP Auditor Race

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Platte County Auditor Sandra Thomas left her campaign watch party early in the morning, going to bed knowing she held a slim lead on her nearest rival, confident she would be the Republican nominee for State Auditor in the general election. As of 3:30 Wednesday morning, Thomas led the field of five with 86,280 votes, only 1,720 more than State Representative Jack Jackson of Wildwood. Jackson, who had 84,560 votes, had already gone home, refusing to concede the election. State Senator John Loudon of St. Louis County, running third in the race, conceded earlier in the evening, saying that neither he nor Jackson could overcome Thomas’ lead. Thomas led throughout the night and widened the vote margin between herself and Jackson to 15,000 votes until totals came in from most of St. Louis County, where both Jackson and Loudon reside. The county gave huge boosts to both men, creating an extremely tight race. With only 24 of the 3,692 precincts remaining to be counted, it is doubtful Jackson can overcome Thomas’ lead, but 13 of those precincts are in St. Loius County, the most populous county in the state. Five precincts from Kansas City have yet to be totalled. The Republican primary for Auditor was the most crowded field in Tuesday’s Primary Elections. State Representative Mark Wright of Springfield received only 12% of the vote. The Republican nominee of four years ago, Al Hanson, hadn’t even been able to crack the 5% margin, finishing fifth. Buchanan County Auditor Susan Montee won the two-person race in the Democratic Primary for State Auditor.

Staying power of Jay Nixon

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Missouri Attorney Jay Nixon is running for his fourth term this year and our Campaign Watch-ers examine why he’s been so successful as AG while failing in two runs for the US Senate. The creation of Missouri’s No Call List –the model for the national list– has made Nixon one of the most popular politicians in the state. His political future may depend on the outcome of the November election. Should Claire McCaskill win, Nixon takes a secondary role. If she loses, party leadership shifts to Nixon. His opponent, Chris Byrd, is something of an unknown –and long shot– without hugh war chest or name recognition. Missouri’s GOP focusing on other races.

Down-Ballot Races Compete for Voter Attention

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In this week’s Campaign Watch, Jo and Steve look at the “down-ballot” races. The race for Lt. Governor pits Peter Kinder against Becky Cook, both from Cape Girardeau. Cook did well in the primary and Kinder’s fate probably rests in the hands of Matt Blunt. In the race for Secretary of State, House Speaker Catherine Hannaway (the first woman in Missouri to hold that position) faces Robin Carnahan, who hopes to keep the family name alive in Missouri politics. Both have a million dollars to spend on the campaign. These two races will have to compete for voters’ attention in a year where the spotlight is on the race for president and governor.

Both Dems and GOP have contested races on August 3

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On August 3rd, Democrats choose candidate for governor but both Republicans and Democrats have contested races. Our Campaign Watch-ers are keeping an eye on two races in particular. With so many candidaes in the Treasurer’s race, Jo Mannies thinks anybody could win. Steve Kraske thinks a lot of folks will be watching Jason Klumb, who many in western Missouri believe has statewide potential downt he road. August 3rd won’t be the first time Missourian’s have seen a crowded ballot for a primary campaign and we might see more as term-limited politicians look for another bit of the pie.