Missouri’s net farm income will likely drop 18% this year to $3.6 billion, according to the Spring 2024 Missouri Farm Income Outlook. Those numbers compare to an estimated 25% decrease in U.S. net farm income.

Scott Brown, interim director of the University of Missouri’s Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) told Missourinet that it’s not something to be alarmed about.

“In 2022, we had record farm income in Missouri at $4.9 billion,” he said. “It was a, generally, a really good time for a lot of our ag producers in this state. So, we’re really just coming off of those record highs. You know, if I went back to 2020, you only had farm income at $3 billion.”

The decline is due to reduced livestock inventories, lower crop prices, and declining market receipts.

“What we’re saying in 2024 is, yes, another dip – $3.6 billion,” he explained. “So, we’re coming off of what has been record farm income and, really, not returning all the way back to where we were in 2020. So, lower crop receipts, dry weather’s played a role in what we’re seeing today.”

Missouri’s crop receipts are estimated to see an 11% decline this year, while livestock receipts are expected to see a nine-percent reduction.

On the bright side, projections indicate an increase in Missouri net farm income for 2025 and 2026.

“We expect cattle prices to continue to move higher in 2025, in 2026, just given how tight supplies are going to be,” Brown said. “So, that’s a large part of what we’re seeing in terms of slightly higher farm income estimates, and we also see what’s going to be expenses that, hopefully, continue to decline.”

The center is projecting that production expenses will decrease by about 5% this year, but that prices for purchased livestock, seed, labor, taxes, and consumption will grow.

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