Another poll shows a statistical tie in the race for Missouri’s U.S. Senate seat in November’s election.
A new Ipsos survey has Republican challenger Josh Hawley with 46% of the vote versus 45% for incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill, a razor-thin gap that is well within the margin for error. The Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls show Hawley with an even tighter edge of 0.4%.
The Ipsos poll also showed that McCaskill’s vote against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh has not had a negative impact on her campaign. When asked, Missouri voters are evenly split on the vote, with more Independents supporting McCaskill’s position than opposing it. That finding is in sharp contrast to the views expressed by national political observers who assume that a vote against President Trump’s nominee would be a lethal blow to McCaskill’s campaign in solidly Republican Missouri.
In addition, the Ipsos poll revealed that most likely voters view both McCaskill (80%) and Hawley (63%) as “traditional” politicians. Views about Hawley may still be developing, however, as a recent survey by CNN showed 19% of likely voters still haven’t formed an opinion about the state’s sitting attorney general.
According to the Ipsos survey, the top issue in determining the vote in Missouri is healthcare (19%) followed by the economy (12%), which also reflects the findings of the CNN survey.
In the research from Ipsos, 41% of likely voters feel that Democrats have a better handle on healthcare versus 37% who feel that way about Republicans. On the economy, the same voters favor the policies of Republicans by a wide margin over Democrats at 48%-to-31%.
The Ipsos poll was conducted in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Separately, Ipsos conducted polling in the first week of October for Missouri’s eight seats in the House of Representatives.
It rated the 1st District occupied by Democrat William Lacy Clay as Safe Democratic, and the 7th District held down by GOP member Billy Long as Safe Republican. The Fifth District occupied by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver was rated Lean Democrat while the remaining five districts, all held down by GOP members were rated Lean Republican.
President Trump’s approval rating also varies by a wide range over the eight districts. He’s most popular in the heavily conservative and Republican 7th District, where he enjoys a 65% approval rating and in the vast 6th District which spans across all of north Missouri, where he enjoys a 66% approval rating.
Interestingly, the President is under 50% in the other four Republican-held districts, including the 2nd near St. Louis, where he gets only a 40% approval rating. Trump is least popular in the Democratic 5th District in and surrounding Kansas City, where his approval rating is 28%.
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