SEC tiebreaker scenarios. Chart from imgur.com
There are 32 possible scenarios that can play out in terms of a tie-breaker between Mizzou, South Carolina and Georgia. The remaining SEC schedule plays out like this:
Mizzou plays Ole Miss and Texas A & M. South Carolina plays Florida and Georgia has Auburn and Kentucky on their schedule.
Of the 32 possible outcomes heading into play this weekend, 20 of them play out in favor of Mizzou (62.5%), a good percentage that works in Missouri’s favor for winning the SEC Eastern Division. Now all of this tie-breaker talk goes away if Mizzou wins both of their games, but in case that doesn’t happen, I break down the best way the Tigers can still book their trip to Atlanta.
If Mizzou is only going to win one of the next two games, the trip to Oxford and a win against the Rebels, serves the Tigers best. As a backup plan, it also helps for Tiger Nation to cheer for the Bulldogs. I explain in this video.
The game that’s really a must win for the Tigers is Ole Miss. If the Tigers beat Ole Miss next Saturday, it knocks down the scenarios in half to 16 possible outcomes. Of those 16, 13 are favorable to Missouri. If Mizzou loses to Ole Miss, then there are only seven favorable scenarios for the Tigers heading into the A & M game. If Mizzou lays an egg and loses both of their games, they have just a 6.25% chance of winning.
So what does this mean? Let’s say the Tigers, beat Ole Miss and lose to A & M. The only way the Tigers do not win the SEC East then is if South Carolina beats Florida, (which they will) and Auburn and/or Kentucky beat Georgia. That’s why it may be important to pull for Georgia.
If Mizzou can win one of their remaining games and Georgia wins both, Mizzou is in the SEC championship game regardless of what the Gamecocks do.