So just how good are the Cardinals chances of making postseason? According to MLB.com, based on thousands of simulations, the Cardinals have a 92.1% chance of making the playoffs, while Milwaukee stands just a 4.4% chance and the Dodgers even less at 3.4%.
There are just six games left in the regular season for the St. Louis Cardinals. Over the previous nine games, where the Cardinals played the Astros six times and the Cubs three, the club went 7-2 and certainly took care of games they needed and should have won. After the Dodgers 8-4 win over the Padres Thursday night, they inched a half game closer, to three games behind St. Louis for the final wild card spot. Milwaukee is four back, and just about done after the Cincinnati Reds scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth to steal a win Thursday afternoon.
The Cardinals finish up at home with three against Washington and three against Cincinnati. The bad news, those teams are division winners. The good news, those teams are division winners. They have already clinched, and one has to wonder how competitive will those teams be this final week of the season? Do their regulars sit more and rest? How will their starting pitching be affected and adjusted to get ready for the playoffs? While the Dodgers and Brewers have slightly favorable schedules, the Cardinals may have done enough this past week and a half, that it just won’t matter.
The Dodgers finish at home against last place Colorado and then first place and rival San Francisco at home. Milwaukee has the easiest schedule of the three clubs vying for that final wild card spot, with three games at home against Houston and then three at home against San Diego (4th in the NL West).
At this point, even if Milwaukee swept both series, the Cardinals only need a 3-3 week to finish off the Brewers. The Dodgers would then have to sweep just to force a one game playoff for the right to play a one game playoff against Atlanta? Is your head spinning yet?