May 23, 2013

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Climatologist: more rain needed for winter wheat, end to drought

September 14, 2012 By

Some parts of the state have received as much as five inches of rain in recent weeks, but the state’s climatologist says the drought is by no means over. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows the difference between the drought in Missouri on August 28 and the most recent update, September 11.

Pat Guinan says the remnants of Hurricane Isaac put a significant dent in it though. “Most of Missouri saw some widespread, significant rainfall over many hours. It was a steady, soaking rain that did well in regard to soaking into the soil profile.”

Guinan says over the Labor Day weekend, between one and five inches of rain fell in parts of the state, but there much more is needed. “This situation began to emerge several months ago, and since then we have accumulated a significant deficit. Even with the remnants of Isaac … here we are in the middle part of September and we still have deficits of anywhere from eight to twelve inches below normal since May 1.”

Fall would be a good time for the state to receive rain, to recover from the drought. “More systems moving through, bringing us better chances of precipitation. Of course, cooler temperatures lowers the evaporative loss that we get from the soil as well as water resources above the ground and so that’s more opportunity for anything that falls from up above to soak into the soil and start filling up those water resources that are still depleted across the state.”

Though the major growing season for soybeans and corn is winding down, Guinan reminds that another significant crop is about to be planted. “Winter wheat will be planted and the wheat needs moisture to germinate this fall and so it’s important that we do get some decent rain or precipitation events as we go into the fall and winter, establish that recharge so that we can have a good start to the growing season next year.”

It remains to be seen whether this year’s drought will be limited to this year, span into next year or last even longer. Guinan says there have been very significant multi-year droughts in Missouri, and he believes that what has happened before can happen again.

“I also want to indicate that there’s no real signal or sign that this is a cycle or that it will continue into next year. There have been periods in the past like in 1980 … we had a very hot, dry summer in 1980 and there was concern that 1981 was going to also be a droughty growing season, but it was just the opposite. We had one of our wettest summers on record in 1981.”

Filed Under: Agriculture, Drought, Featured, News, Weather Tagged With: , , , ,

Climatologist urges Missourians to report drought impacts

July 12, 2012 By

One of the tools used by federal officials in assessing drought and making decisions about it is the U.S. Drought Monitor. Its information could play a role in what Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack does with Governor Jay Nixon’s request that every county in the state be declared a disaster area due to drought.

Click the image to go to the Drought Impact Reporter

State Climatologist Pat Guinan says Missourians can make sure the people updating the Monitor have all the information. That can be done through the Drought Impact Reporter. “You provide your information in regard to where you’re reporting this impact from and what sort of impact you’re seeing, be it water shortages, livestock ponds that are low, pastures that are all burned up … you can even submit pictures of the impact that you’re witnessing at your area.”

Guinan says it makes a difference. “That information automatically gets submitted or dispatched to the Drought Monitor author, who then can use that sort of information to make assessments on the severity level of the drought that’s impacting the area. I’m a firm believer that the more people who participate in the drought decision process, the better the depiction or accurate portrayal that we will have of drought across the country.”

Guinan says he can’t predict what federal officials will do with the Governor’s disaster declaration request, but he says there is no doubt this drought is historic.

“When we look at the numbers that are coming in of the crop conditions, of the heat that we’ve seen … we’re making comparisons to 1988 in regards to the crop conditions.”

He says the streaks of triple-digit temperature days are also comparable to the 1980s and the dust bowl era. “Some locations in Missouri, we’ve seen 10, 11 days continuous streak of triple-digit heat. That’s something we haven’t seen in more than 30 years in some location. Some, in fact, 80 years.”

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Drought accompanied by less severe weather (AUDIO)

July 2, 2012 By

Worsening drought conditions across much of the country might come with some small benefit.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook shows only a slight risk for severe weather in the U.S. through tomorrow. (Click image to go to the Center’s website.)

University of Missouri Climatologist Pat Guinan says the correlation is simple. Less rain means less severe weather. “If there ever is a positive impact due to drought, I guess that would be one of the very few things, in regard to the lack of severe weather.”

Guinan says the month of May, 2012 saw roughly a third of the usual number of tornadoes in the U.S. and no tornado-related fatalities. That’s in stark contrast to May of last year, when over 175 people died in tornadoes in the U.S.

Guinan says few would see the trade of drought for severe weather as reason to celebrate though, because drought effects a far greater area and number of people than an isolated thunderstorm or tornado. This drought is no exception, and extends well beyond Missouri.

“With this emerging drought that began as early as April in southeastern Missouri and has spread northward in the month of May and is pretty much now covering the entire state of Missouri, and beyond that much of Kansas, parts of southeast Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois over into southern Wisconsin, Indiana down into Kentucky to the sea, even in Arkansas.”

Areas in and near Washington D.C., Maryland and Virginia, where severe weather hit on Friday, are classified by the U.S. Drought Monitor as “abnormally dry.”

Guinan says the central U.S. remains under the influence of high pressure that has kept severe weather at bay, while the jet stream has also remained unusually far to the north, keeping more active weather to the northern U.S.

AUDIO:  Mike Lear interviews Pat Guinan, 15:50

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MU Climatologist: May, June dryness reminiscent of 1988 drought

June 27, 2012 By

May 2012, the eighth dryest May on record in Missouri, is being followed by what will likely be a June in the top 10 for dryness as well. University of Missouri climatologist Pat Guinan says if you want this drought to end, that’s not a good omen.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map for Missouri (click link to go to U.S. Drought Monitor website).

Guinan says May and June usually make up the wettest two-month period in a year in Missouri, with around 10 inches of rain. So far the two months have seen only about 4 inches. That’s drawing comparisons to 1988, when began a drought that lasted two years.

“That was a historic drought that impacted much of the central and western part of the country,” he tells Missourinet. “In fact, when you look at the economic damage that was due to the 1988 drought you have to go all the way back to the dust bowl years of the 1930s.”

Guinan says triple digit numbers are also unusual in the month of June another fact he says compares to 1988.

There is no sign that the hot, dry pattern is going to lift.

“The latest (outlook) for the month of July is not encouraging,” he says. “They are indicating above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation across all of Missouri.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor information has 13 counties in southeast Missouri all or partly in extreme drought.

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Climatologist: dry May usually a harbinger of more parched conditions

June 12, 2012 By

State Climatologist Pat Guinan says Missouri is more than five inches behind in rainfall since May 1.

What is usually Missouri’s rainiest month of the year, May, was anything but, and a state climatologist says that tends to be a bad sign for the rest of the summer.

Pat Guinan says, “When you have a dry May, generally the pattern that we see the following summer, at least historically, is for the summer season to be hotter and drier than normal. There are exceptions to that but the overall trend is for a hotter and drier summer to emerge when we have a very dry May.”

Guinan says May 2012 ranks as the 8th dryest on record. Even after storms yesterday, some parts of the state are still more than five inches off the average rainfall total since May 1.

Guinan says the long-term outlook for the summer is unclear, partly because forecasters have no warming or cooling of the Pacific Ocean, commonly called El Nino or La Nina, influencing the forecast. A La Nina that had lasted through the winter ended about a month ago.

“At least according to what the Climate Prediction Center is saying, they are forecasting for most of Missouri, the summertime temperatures to be above normal, but when it came to the precipitation category they actually gave equal chances for above, below and near normal precipitation.”

Of Monday’s storms, that brought one to two inches of rain to some parts of Missouri, Guinan says, “It’s a step in the right direction, but we have a long way to go to make up a deficit that we’ve accumulated over several weeks this spring. We need a really good two inch soaker across the entire state. The topsoil is very dry and it’s going to take a significant amount of moisture to percolate through and moisten it up.”

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