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Drought lessened in Southeast Missouri, still ‘severe’ in Western Missouri

January 19, 2013 By

The drought has lessened in parts of Missouri, but it hasn’t broken and is still considered severe in nearly 40 percent of the state according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor update for Missouri.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor update for Missouri.

A system that caused flooding in southeastern Missouri has eased the drought there, according to National Weather Service hydrologist Mark Fuchs, but much of Missouri didn’t get very much rainfall.

“The areas that did (get significant rain) would be areas basically just south of St. Louis down into south-central Missouri and points east, like over toward like Cape Girardeau, did get some fairly decent drought relief.”

The rain also significantly raised the level of the Mississippi River by as much as 9 feet in places, but Fuchs says much more rain is needed before the drought can really be broken.

“We’re going to need repeated events of precipitation that we really haven’t seen this winter yet, but the key will be this spring. If we get some substantial rainfall in the spring that will go a long way to helping solve the moisture deficit across central and western Missouri.”

Fuchs says the Weather Service’s outlook for precipitation into the spring is pretty ambiguous.

“For the state of Missouri, more or less equal chances of above, near average or below average precipitation for the month of February or the three-month period from February through April, which is essentially a very fancy way of saying, ‘We’re not really sure.’ Some models are showing we could see above average rainfall, some models are showing we could see below average rainfall. There’s no real clear consensus in the modeling.”

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NOAA releases winter outlook

October 18, 2012 By

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting warmer and drier than normal conditions in much of Missouri for December, January and February.

Click the image to go to NOAA’s winter outlook.

Deputy Director of the Administration’s Climate Prediction Center Mike Halpert says NOAA’s winter outlook calls for above normal temperatures in, “much of Texas northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies and the eastern halves of Washington, Oregon and California as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.”

The northern half of Missouri is also predicted to have below normal precipitation in December, January and February, with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation in the southern half of the state.

As for whether or not this year’s historic drought will continue, the report doesn’t cover that but Halpert refers to the climate center’s drought outlook that extends to about halfway through January.

“The large majority of that drought we expect to persist. Kind of a negative thing is that we even see drought expanding westward along the northern tier, so into Montana and Idaho and parts of Oregon and Washington. Really, if you look at the precipitation forecast, the favored category where there is one is all for “below.”

The outlook is based on what are seen as the mostly likely probable outcomes, but Halpert says they could change. One variable is what he calls an “indecisive El Nino” this year.

“Typically by mid October we have a clear picture of the emerging climate factors that will influence the winter season, including whether El Nino or La Nina will occur. That has not been the case this year, however. A few months ago El Nino appeared likely to develop and persist through the winter but its development abruptly halted last month and sea surface temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific have largely returned to normal. We do still see some signs, however, that El Nino could still develop over the next few months and that possibility was taken into account for this outlook.”

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Commission of legislators, citizens to look at drought impacts on agriculture

September 18, 2012 By

A Commission has been formed to study the damage done to Missouri’s ag industry by the drought and the down economy. 

Representative Bill Reiboldt (R-Neosho)

Representative Bill Reiboldt (R-Neosho) will chair the group.  He is, himself, a farmer in southeast Missouri. He says in his own operation, he had to cut his corn crop for silage and much of his soybean crop was used for hay.

Reiboldt says there is a lot of concern over maintaining Missouri’s rank as the nation’s number two cow-calf state.

“A lot of people, because of the lack of hay and the cost of buying hay, will be selling their stock herd … their mama cows. A lot of people will be forced into selling their cows, and we’re already looking at a time when the cattle industry has been hurt. Our cattle numbers are as low as they’ve been since the 1950s, is my understanding.”

Reiboldt says once a person gets out of a cattle operation, especially a dairy operation, getting back in presents many challenges that make it unlikely they will get back in.

“A cow that is born and raised in Missouri can go other places to live, but it’s hard to bring a cow from other areas into Missouri. So, we’re concerned about the cow-calf industry in Missouri. We’re concerned about the dairy industry in Missouri … because so many of the smaller dairymen are having to sell out because they don’t have the feed. We’re concerned about the price of corn and other commodities and how it will affect a poultry industry and the hog industry in Missouri.”

Reiboldt says the group will look at a lot of possible ways producers might be helped. “We’re going to be looking at some water issues into the future. We’re going to be looking at irrigation. We’re going to be looking at definitely rebuilding the cow-calf industry in Missouri and what ways can we be of help. For example, if a person has to completely disperse a part or all of their herd, can we spread that tax liability over several years so that we can buy back?”

The other members of the commission are Representatives Jay Houghton (R-Martinsburg), Tony Dugger (R-Hartville) and Diane Franklin (R-Camdenton), as well as citizen members Lonny Duckworth of Duckworth Farms, Lloyd Gunter of Gunter Farms, Brent Sandidge of Ham Hills Farms and Greg Scharpe of Pioneer Seed.

The Commission will schedule four meetings around the state between now and the end of the year.

Filed Under: Agriculture, Drought, Featured, Legislature, News Tagged With: ,

Climatologist: more rain needed for winter wheat, end to drought

September 14, 2012 By

Some parts of the state have received as much as five inches of rain in recent weeks, but the state’s climatologist says the drought is by no means over. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows the difference between the drought in Missouri on August 28 and the most recent update, September 11.

Pat Guinan says the remnants of Hurricane Isaac put a significant dent in it though. “Most of Missouri saw some widespread, significant rainfall over many hours. It was a steady, soaking rain that did well in regard to soaking into the soil profile.”

Guinan says over the Labor Day weekend, between one and five inches of rain fell in parts of the state, but there much more is needed. “This situation began to emerge several months ago, and since then we have accumulated a significant deficit. Even with the remnants of Isaac … here we are in the middle part of September and we still have deficits of anywhere from eight to twelve inches below normal since May 1.”

Fall would be a good time for the state to receive rain, to recover from the drought. “More systems moving through, bringing us better chances of precipitation. Of course, cooler temperatures lowers the evaporative loss that we get from the soil as well as water resources above the ground and so that’s more opportunity for anything that falls from up above to soak into the soil and start filling up those water resources that are still depleted across the state.”

Though the major growing season for soybeans and corn is winding down, Guinan reminds that another significant crop is about to be planted. “Winter wheat will be planted and the wheat needs moisture to germinate this fall and so it’s important that we do get some decent rain or precipitation events as we go into the fall and winter, establish that recharge so that we can have a good start to the growing season next year.”

It remains to be seen whether this year’s drought will be limited to this year, span into next year or last even longer. Guinan says there have been very significant multi-year droughts in Missouri, and he believes that what has happened before can happen again.

“I also want to indicate that there’s no real signal or sign that this is a cycle or that it will continue into next year. There have been periods in the past like in 1980 … we had a very hot, dry summer in 1980 and there was concern that 1981 was going to also be a droughty growing season, but it was just the opposite. We had one of our wettest summers on record in 1981.”

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Recent rains do not mean salvation for corn, soybeans

September 7, 2012 By

Rain the last two weeks might be too late to be of any help to the state’s soybean and corn farmers.

Just because soybean fields are green and don’t look dry like most cornfields this year, does not mean they are productive. (Photo courtesy, Karma Metzgar)

Some soybean farmers resisted cutting their crops for silage, hoping to salvage a bigger crop out of them. University of Missouri Agronomist Bill Wiebold says rains in the last couple of weeks could help maintain the pods that are there or make seeds a little larger, but that’s about it.

“I think they’ve helped a little but not very much. What we have gone through this summer, soybean plants have flowered and flowered and flowered but not kept very many of those flowers on, and so the plants have very few pods on them and just no capacity or very little capacity to produce any additional flowers.”

Corn plants, most of which died weeks ago, now run the additional risk of fungal infection as a result of rain. Wiebold says that makes harvesting what is left as soon as possible a priority.

“Even though the yield’s not very good, every bushel that we can bring in is income. What we’ve been saying is a timely harvest, even with a poor harvest in terms of yield … is still important.”

Wiebold says the harvest of most soybeans will begin in about three weeks.

Filed Under: Agriculture, Drought, News, Weather Tagged With: , , ,
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