Baseball Prospectus assessed the 2017 Cardinals as a team that would finish with a dismal 76-86 mark. The Royals are even worse at 71-91. This is based on the sabermetic system known as PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. Earlier this week, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post Dispatch,
“That’s unbelievable. Yeah, I saw it. I hope the guys saw it, too. I’m not going to make a big deal of it, though.”
I was out to tear PECOTA to pieces. What I actually found is that at least for 2016, their projections were pretty accurate.
12 of the 15 in the NL teams, PECOTA was within 6 games of their record
10 of the 15 in the AL teams, PECOTA was within six games of their record
They also picked three of the six division winners and all five playoff teams in the National League and three of the five in the American League.
Listen for more on the 2016 projections
A look back at the 2016 projections
American League PECOTA Standings Projections
AL East…they had the Rays with 91 wins…they finished dead last with 68. They had the Orioles in last, they finished 17 games better. Boston, Toronto and the Yankees they had within five. I’ll give Pecota the win. 3 of 5, despite bombing on the Division champ
AL Central…Pecota had the Indians 92 wins, they finished with 94. They had the White Sox within four wins, missed on the Tigers who they had in third, they finished 2nd with 7 more wins. They botched the Twins who lost 103 games and missed the Royals who they 10 games under…Royals finished .500 Pecota got the Indians and two wins off. This really wasn’t that close…I’ll give Pecota the loss despite picking the Division winner
AL West…Pecota had Houston winning with 87 wins…Astros finished in third but had 84…Pecota had Seattle 2nd with 84 wins, they had 86 and the Angels had 74 wins, projected at 76…A’s picked for last…six game difference, 75 by Pecota, actual 69. They bombed the Rangers at 80-82. Texas won 95 games….but dead on with four of the teams. Pecota the win
National League PECOTA Standings Projections
NL East…Not sure you could predict the injuries the Mets had, they still finished with 87 wins, Pecota had them at 91…Pecota had Washington at 87, they won the division with 95. Marlins Braves Phillies…it was actually Marlins Phillies Braves…I could have predicted the three teams at the bottom. Easy division win for Pecota
NL Central…Pecota had the division..Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Brewers, Reds Cubs won 103, Pecota had 92, but their win totals all right there from 1 to 6 off. Pecota win
NL West…Dodgers 3 win difference, they had the Giants predicted at 87, one win off with the Rockies off one run, Arizona off by seven wins, San Diego two wins off. Pecota win.
Here are the 2017 projections from Baseball Prospectus
American League, ranked by projected (remainder of season) 2017 record
| East | Updated | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | TAv | FRAA | |
0  |
 Boston Red Sox |
Hitters: Jan 1 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
90 | 72 | 750 | 663 | .272 | .335 | .431 | .263 | 10.7 |
| 0 |
 Tampa Bay Rays |
Hitters: Feb 3 Pitchers: Jan 26 |
84 | 78 | 724 | 691 | .245 | .310 | .407 | .260 | 14.6 |
| 0 |
 New York Yankees |
Hitters: Jan 1 Pitchers: Jan 19 |
82 | 80 | 739 | 733 | .254 | .322 | .415 | .258 | 13.7 |
| 0 |
 Toronto Blue Jays |
Hitters: Jan 19 Pitchers: Feb 6 |
81 | 81 | 767 | 767 | .258 | .332 | .432 | .266 | 14.5 |
| 0 |
 Baltimore Orioles |
Hitters: Feb 1 Pitchers: Jan 19 |
73 | 89 | 729 | 815 | .256 | .318 | .433 | .261 | -17.1 |
| Central | Updated | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | TAv | FRAA | |
| 0 |
 Cleveland Indians |
Hitters: Feb 3 Pitchers: Feb 3 |
92 | 70 | 798 | 685 | .268 | .337 | .435 | .265 | 6.7 |
| 0 |
 Minnesota Twins |
Hitters: Feb 6 Pitchers: Feb 6 |
80 | 82 | 733 | 747 | .251 | .318 | .422 | .257 | 22.7 |
| 0 |
 Detroit Tigers |
Hitters: Jan 19 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
78 | 84 | 743 | 771 | .262 | .322 | .428 | .260 | -27.4 |
| 3 |
 Chicago White Sox |
Hitters: Jan 19 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
76 | 86 | 701 | 755 | .257 | .309 | .404 | .254 | -30.7 |
| 0 |
 Kansas City Royals |
Hitters: Feb 3 Pitchers: Feb 6 |
71 | 91 | 681 | 779 | .255 | .309 | .397 | .250 | -10.4 |
| West | Updated | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | TAv | FRAA | |
| 0 |
 Houston Astros |
Hitters: Jan 1 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
94 | 68 | 769 | 646 | .258 | .322 | .421 | .268 | 18.7 |
| 0 |
 Seattle Mariners |
Hitters: Jan 27 Pitchers: Jan 27 |
87 | 75 | 771 | 712 | .258 | .320 | .420 | .264 | 46.3 |
| 0 |
 Texas Rangers |
Hitters: Jan 1 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
84 | 78 | 765 | 730 | .260 | .328 | .427 | .264 | 6.1 |
| 0 |
 Los Angeles Angels |
Hitters: Jan 26 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
78 | 84 | 718 | 749 | .252 | .318 | .403 | .261 | 2.0 |
| 1 |
 Oakland Athletics |
Hitters: Jan 26 Pitchers: Jan 26 |
75 | 87 | 676 | 737 | .243 | .305 | .391 | .256 | -17.6 |
National League, ranked by projected (remainder of season) 2017 record
| East | Updated | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | TAv | FRAA | |
| 1 |
 New York Mets |
Hitters: Jan 1 Pitchers: Feb 6 |
88 | 74 | 716 | 650 | .242 | .309 | .405 | .258 | -3.6 |
| 0 |
 Washington Nationals |
Hitters: Jan 27 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
87 | 75 | 740 | 685 | .251 | .320 | .407 | .260 | -4.3 |
| 0 |
 Miami Marlins |
Hitters: Jan 1 Pitchers: Jan 19 |
78 | 84 | 685 | 718 | .254 | .312 | .390 | .256 | -25.8 |
| 0 |
 Atlanta Braves |
Hitters: Jan 26 Pitchers: Jan 19 |
77 | 85 | 664 | 705 | .248 | .310 | .383 | .251 | 9.0 |
| 0 |
 Philadelphia Phillies |
Hitters: Jan 19 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
74 | 88 | 667 | 731 | .244 | .298 | .387 | .248 | -40.5 |
| Central | Updated | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | TAv | FRAA | |
| 5 |
 Chicago Cubs |
Hitters: Jan 1 Pitchers: Feb 3 |
91 | 71 | 766 | 667 | .249 | .326 | .418 | .267 | 6.9 |
| 0 |
 Pittsburgh Pirates |
Hitters: Feb 6 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
81 | 81 | 726 | 730 | .262 | .327 | .408 | .259 | -3.8 |
| 3 |
 Milwaukee Brewers |
Hitters: Jan 1 Pitchers: Feb 6 |
76 | 86 | 720 | 769 | .241 | .301 | .400 | .247 | 8.7 |
| 1 |
 St. Louis Cardinals |
Hitters: Jan 1 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
76 | 86 | 706 | 756 | .253 | .317 | .411 | .258 | -32.6 |
| 0 |
 Cincinnati Reds |
Hitters: Jan 27 Pitchers: Jan 27 |
74 | 88 | 726 | 803 | .248 | .310 | .404 | .250 | -5.6 |
| West | Updated | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | TAv | FRAA | |
| 5 |
 Los Angeles Dodgers |
Hitters: Jan 27 Pitchers: Feb 6 |
99 | 63 | 762 | 595 | .252 | .323 | .422 | .267 | 28.0 |
| 0 |
 San Francisco Giants |
Hitters: Feb 6 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
86 | 76 | 702 | 652 | .258 | .321 | .400 | .257 | 20.5 |
| 0 |
 Arizona D-backs |
Hitters: Jan 19 Pitchers: Jan 1 |
78 | 84 | 707 | 740 | .260 | .317 | .424 | .251 | -17.7 |
| 0 |
 Colorado Rockies |
Hitters: Feb 3 Pitchers: Feb 3 |
76 | 86 | 733 | 789 | .265 | .316 | .443 | .249 | -8.2 |
| 1 |
 San Diego Padres |
Hitters: Jan 26 Pitchers: Jan 26 |
69 | 93 | 659 | 774 | .242 | .297 | .392 | .244 | 16.3 |
