We’ve had our first good taste of colder weather….and some parts of Missouri have seen their first snow. How bad is this winter going to be? Different people read the signs differently. This has been the wettest year in many years in Missouri but that does not mean all of the moisture that could become snow has been used up. This has been one of the coolest years in years in Missouri, but that doesn’t mean we’re facing a cold winter. State climatologist Pat Guinan says seven of the last ten winters have been warmer than average—last year being an exception. He says the latest outlook from the National Climate Prediction Center is for above-normal temperatures for the next three months. But he says "warmer" is a matter of degrees–or maybe just one. He says the center never puts a number on how much above or below it thinks the average temperature will be, meaning that if the average temperature is only a tenth of a degree above normal, the center can claim it made a successful forecast. The Center is forecasting a wetter than usual winter. But Guinan says the LaNina effect that helped create the snow and ice storms last winter is not present this time and that means all bets are off when it comes to this winter’s precipitation
